Some issue with market availability/demand/production

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mrgenie
Brigadier Gen.
Posts: 595
Joined: Jul 08 2008

Some issue with market availability/demand/production

#1 Post by mrgenie » Jun 20 2018

First of all a screenshot:
Image

what does it show:

I have almost completely taken control of all the rubber. I thought: Malaysia isn't producing enough for the world. So just take control and keep building supply until the world demand is met.

Naturally, if it is met the price increase stops.
Price going down.
if it goes down further below my min USD/Unit I stop selling, but it means the market runs out of supplies and thus price going up.
With me in control of all the supplies, I can set the price.

Although on my maps countries like USA, Germany, France, USSR, etc need amounts like 500.000 to 1.000.000 per day myself 2.000.000 per day, they stop buying.

Top importers:
USA needs 7.300.000 per day
Germany needs 3.500.000 per day
China needs 2.600.000 per day
USSR need 1.000.000 per day
India needs 3.000.000 per day
Japan needs 2.500.000 per day
and the list goes on and on

Top exporters:
east india has production 2.500.000 per day with own demand 800.000
Liberia production 1.000.000 per day with own demand 9.000

EXPORTING however both export (Yes I didn't forget the zeros, they export close to nothing!):
Liberia 2.900
East Indies 2.000

As one can see this isn't even nearly to supply the markets.

There no reason under this condition that prices keep falling unless the engine you programmed doesn't use "Market demand vs market supply" but instead it looks to my extreme big " CAPACITY" and based on the capacity
it says: "lower market price" which is wrong of course.

The price went down from 580 to 537 now while I set it at 561

Although I'm not selling anymore and thus demand is there but no supplies thus logically the price should increase again it doesn't

It looks like the price is going down based on my huge "capacity"

I think the market price in the engine is NOT based on what is really supplied on the market but the engine is looking at "possible capacity" and bases the price development on that.

Which means, the engine is wrong! It should only take into consideration what is really DEMAND & SUPPLY and not DEMAND & CAPACITY

I noticed this on price development on other items as well.

Either way, it doesn't make sense when everyone is needing it, that the price goes down if the only supplier isn't throwing it on the market.
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evildari
Colonel
Posts: 310
Joined: Aug 10 2017
Human: Yes

Re: Some issue with market availability/demand/production

#2 Post by evildari » Jun 20 2018

i got similar issue, which could be even easier calculated - since there was only one region alive (mine)
and market price was nowhere near one would expect it..
-> http://www.bgforums.com/forums/viewtopi ... 72&t=28177
i wait for the devs response to this ... "You've won, you're the Supreme Rubber."
But since there is that automatic production alignment - just one production building per ressource is enough for the longterm supply of the whole world.
my mods
http://www.bgforums.com/forums/viewtopi ... 79&t=25932 (even techs and units for everyone - AI will own you too)
http://www.bgforums.com/forums/viewtopi ... 79&t=29326 (MARSX2)

Buzzbrad
BattleGoat Team
Posts: 107
Joined: Oct 17 2013
Human: Yes

Re: Some issue with market availability/demand/production

#3 Post by Buzzbrad » Jun 20 2018

Could you send us a savegame where this exact issue occurs? Send it to support@battlegoat.com with the subject line task21986.

Thanks!

GIJoe597
Board Admin
Posts: 2831
Joined: Sep 29 2008
Human: Yes
Contact:

Re: Some issue with market availability/demand/production

#4 Post by GIJoe597 » Jun 21 2018

I am still of the mindset most of these issues started with the 9.0.50 update. Specifically these two lines;

Petrol, Electricity, and Finished goods production & use multipliers will gradually increase from SR1936 to SRCW/2020 values (10x and 20x) over 10 years

Node production will slowly increase/decrease if less/greater than world demand (not U)
https://www.youtube.com/user/GIJoe597


Older/retired gamers, who do not tolerate foolishness.

http://steamcommunity.com/groups/USARG

SGTscuba
General
Posts: 1792
Joined: Dec 08 2007
Location: Tipton, UK

Re: Some issue with market availability/demand/production

#5 Post by SGTscuba » Jun 21 2018

The whole node production thing does annoy me with it being scaled to world demand. I don't think it should be a thing affected by the market availability like it used to be.


Sometimes it causes issues when you have a mega population as you have to build vast amount of nodes to keep up with the demand increase.
My SR:U Model Project, get the latest and post suggestions here:

http://www.bgforums.com/forums/viewtopi ... 79&t=28040

way2co0l
Brigadier Gen.
Posts: 686
Joined: Nov 29 2010
Human: Yes

Re: Some issue with market availability/demand/production

#6 Post by way2co0l » Jun 21 2018

I mean, Rubber is the biggest culprit here again. I'm sure the underlying issue is present with the other resources as well, but it's not as obvious. I don't fault the devs for wanting to add rubber originally. It was a critical resource during the WW2 timeframe and virtually every game that focuses on the era incorporates it in one way or another. But it poses several major bottleneck problems and makes it difficult for fixes meant for other areas to actually work correctly without buggering it up. I understand that your issue in this post is actually about something else entirely, but I just felt like it was an opportunity to bring up the fact that it's really only an obvious issue with rubber in general. It's the only natural resource you can really get any kind of monopoly on. Oil is the next closest but not to the extent you can with rubber.

Anyway, as to the actual issue at hand. My initial thought is that the price is decreasing not because of rubber's exports, but because of what is currently available. Nations have stockpiles and it's possible that they have enough stocked up so that even though they can't import enough to meet demand atm, their current stocks can absorb it. That lack of actual demand could explain this.

I don't know how far into your game you are or the exact circumstances, but I know for a fact that this is something that does come up. For example, I tend to play with abundant starting resources because I find it helps the AI. But one of the downsides this setting makes abundantly obvious is the fact that even if I play a major oil exporter and shut off all of my production entirely, the oil market price will drop for a very long period of time simply because everyone already has a tremendous amount of it stockpiled and don't actually have to import any. It can sometimes be several in game years before China and India begin having to import and thus driving the prices up making it lucrative for me to turn my own oil production back on.

If your game is in a similar state where there are sufficiently large stockpiles remaining, then it will take time for the market price to stabilize. Especially if you had just been selling several million units before it fell below your sell price. From the trade menu that shows imports/exports, you can check to see how many people are actually importing rubber and at what quantities. If very few people are actually importing then that indicates that they are indeed sitting on stockpiles which means they don't need to import yet. You can check a nation's stockpiles by going into a trade with them as if you wanted to buy them from them so you can see the quantities available.

Edit: Also, I'd be very careful with allowing worldwide stockpiles to deplete. Rubber is such an essential resource that if people can't get it, it will result in cascading effects throughout the rest of the world's economy. I've had earlier games ruined simply because the world ran out of rubber and everything shut down.

mrgenie
Brigadier Gen.
Posts: 595
Joined: Jul 08 2008

Re: Some issue with market availability/demand/production

#7 Post by mrgenie » Jun 22 2018

Hi Way2Cool,

good analysis. You may be right about the stocks. However, I'm playing a game 1914 and are in 1950 now so when reported this issue I guess around 1942-1945 (WWII events already started)
and if that's correct about the countries stockpiling stuff, it's pretty weird though that they have stocks that much to cover decades of demand!

Again, my demand at the time I reported it was 2.000.000 roughly, I listed all the demand of the other countries.

Right now my demand is 3.5 million.

As you can see with the other demand I listed above, we're talking a total of at least 25.000.000 worldwide

I have a total of 202 rubber plantations since I reported this. My total output capacity is 22.000.000 (so roughly 35 I need to cover my own)


The plantations in Vietnam, Brasil and a few in Africa are a total of less then 40, so less then 4.000.000 is their total world production. (I counted 36 in Indonesia, Brasil, USA, Africa, etc.. but lets say I missed 4)

There's NO WAY they could stockpile that much as even what the rest of the world is producing (assume that's 4 million) plus my 3.5 million is a total of 7.5 million.

That's barely enough to keep supplies to cover only the USA!

There is definitely something wrong if you look at the numbers. I doubt these countries started with so many stock pile reserves to cover the decades to come!

ADD: I know there are also artificial rubber plants but that's not even scratching the supply needed to cover demand.

we're talking at small percentages self sufficiency really.

I'm very sure the rubber "economy" is wrong and from the looks of it other materials use the same mechanics, thus wrong as well.

way2co0l
Brigadier Gen.
Posts: 686
Joined: Nov 29 2010
Human: Yes

Re: Some issue with market availability/demand/production

#8 Post by way2co0l » Jun 22 2018

Eeeep. Yeah, what I was referencing can result in market issues for a relatively short period of time, but nothing in the neighborhood of decades. Abundant resources makes oil and industrial goods survive years before people need to start importing them, but I'd say no more than 4-6 tops. There's no way rubber would last that long. Heck, if my memory serves me correctly, even with my settings, I'd usually be dealing with worldwide shortages of rubber by that time or at least the danger of it approaching. I think they've done a lot to fix that since then, but it still definitely doesn't explain what you're saying. Hmmmm. Mind sharing a save? Send it to way2co0l_2003@hotmail.com I'd like to dig around through a few things to see if I can offer any insights that would just take too long to type up, especially if they all prove to be unimportant. lol

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