Ukraine..

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Hullu Hevonen
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Ukraine..

Post by Hullu Hevonen »

Feels like there's no hope for Ukraine as it's once internal affairs have now become an proxy conflict between USA & EU vs Russia. This conflict along with countless others are great examples of what happens when outer more powerful countries meddle in Countries internal business. In the end there will only be bloodshed...

Some different recent reportage on the topic, also note the wording of the reportages:
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/02/28 ... g-airport/
http://rt.com/news/crimea-airport-terminal-capture-095/
http://edition.cnn.com/2014/02/28/world ... ?hpt=hp_t1

Some interesting stats
http://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2014 ... le_sidebar
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bluestreak2k5
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Re: Ukraine..

Post by bluestreak2k5 »

It seems like another Syria.

Honestly it all comes down to oppression and not respecting/forcing your own way onto other people. Forcing a change in national language usage is a huge deal, and should they have felt it necessary, should have been done by a national vote on what language to use.

A similar thing happened here in the US in the early days about whether to display all national reports in German and English, or just English.

And the US isn't meddling in Ukraine's business, Russia has already demonstrated that it want its old territories back both by its invasion of Georgia, as well as Russia cutting off all Gas supplies to Ukraine when they started talking about joining the EU.
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Re: Ukraine..

Post by notus »

There is a Missile Cruiser blocking the Sevastopol Bay, the Coast Guard HQ on Sevastopol has been surrounded by armed and masked men and the airspace on Crimea is closed, there has been reports of Russian Armored Vehicles Convoys moving in Crimea

http://i.imgur.com/edDvHBt.jpg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ID2ewHa ... e=youtu.be
"Telephone hubs in Crimea have been blocked, Ukraine's Channel 5 TV reports. An official from the company that owns the Ukrainian telecom monopoly Ukrtelekom is also reported to have told Ukrainska Pravda the firm is unable to get in touch with its Crimean branch."

Edit: http://www.interpretermag.com/wp-conten ... AAvG-O.jpg
Hullu Hevonen
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Re: Ukraine..

Post by Hullu Hevonen »

bluestreak2k5 wrote:It seems like another Syria.

Honestly it all comes down to oppression and not respecting/forcing your own way onto other people. Forcing a change in national language usage is a huge deal, and should they have felt it necessary, should have been done by a national vote on what language to use.

A similar thing happened here in the US in the early days about whether to display all national reports in German and English, or just English.

And the US isn't meddling in Ukraine's business, Russia has already demonstrated that it want its old territories back both by its invasion of Georgia, as well as Russia cutting off all Gas supplies to Ukraine when they started talking about joining the EU.
Oh the US is not meddling eh?? 'Come to our side and you'll get 1 billion' and thats only the US. The EU plans billions in a Greece-like austerity package for Ukraine. On the other end you have Russia offering a discount on oil + 15 billion in cash. Before regime change in Kiev, eastern media was screaming about armed protesters on the streets of kiev that basically owerthrew the gov there, while now with a counter uprising in easter Ukraine(not forgetting the anti-EU protesters in Kharkiv) or the pro-Russian protests/uprising in Crimea. Now the Western media is behaving similary like the eastern media, screaming of an uprising in Crimea and armed militias and claming direct Russian involment. I think though the military drills are meant as a message and warning to the west, Russia could of postponed the drills, after all they knew of the crisis in Ukraine.

some links
http://www.telegram.com/article/2014022 ... 052/news01?
http://www.dw.de/eu-to-offer-financial- ... a-17454804
http://rt.com/news/nato-us-lecture-russia-ukraine-074/
http://rt.com/news/crimea-airport-terminal-capture-095/
notus wrote:There is a Missile Cruiser blocking the Sevastopol Bay, the Coast Guard HQ on Sevastopol has been surrounded by armed and masked men and the airspace on Crimea is closed, there has been reports of Russian Armored Vehicles Convoys moving in Crimea

http://i.imgur.com/edDvHBt.jpg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ID2ewHa ... e=youtu.be
"Telephone hubs in Crimea have been blocked, Ukraine's Channel 5 TV reports. An official from the company that owns the Ukrainian telecom monopoly Ukrtelekom is also reported to have told Ukrainska Pravda the firm is unable to get in touch with its Crimean branch."

Edit: http://www.interpretermag.com/wp-conten ... AAvG-O.jpg
Well according to russian sources the movments are part of regular drills and legal according to agreements with Ukraine. Also that ship is tiny, no way it's a 'missile cruiser', I'd be suprised if it even managed to lock down the airspace. Also according to Russian sources the men guarding the Airport in Crimea have taken control of it, but not shut it down. They don't bare any insignia and Russia denies the claimed affeliation of it and the Armed men in Crimea.

Some links:
http://rt.com/news/russian-vehicles-cri ... ments-227/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tarantul-class_corvette


Guys keep your eyes open, there's an obvious information war or aka propaganda war going on.

My current opinion is that Russia has some indirect involment, like the US and the EU in Ukraine. Ukraine is on the border to Russia, it becoming a western country would be in many ways negative to Russia.
This is as I currently see it
1. Russia could lose economic assets it already has in Ukraine
2. Ukraine contains one of Russia most important naval bases, removing this would be the same as to remove Hawai'i from the US, from a military point of view.
3. A western Ukraine would pretty much torpedo the Eurasian Union
4. Ukraine is a culturally closely related country borderd to Russia
5. Ukraine has a large population supporting alignment to Russia
6. Russia is 2nd largest trading partner of Ukraine

There is many motivations for the US and EU to project their power into Ukraine
1. EU is Ukraine's largest trading partner
2. Ukraine contains a large Pro-EU population
3. Ukraine is mineral rich and have the potential to become a big economic player in the EU
4. A less powerful Russia would benefit the US diplomatically, Russia with less diplomatic clout = less possiblility for Russia protesting future US meddling in say the middle east.

When it comes to Ukraine itself it has a divided population, one wanting alignment with Russia and the other the EU. The situation is made more complicated by the fact that both EU and Russia don't want Ukraine to have a freetrade agreement with both blocks. The reason for this is that 2 free trade agreements would have big economic effect on Ukraine and ukrainian companies as it would serve as an loophole for goods to both blocks without regulation. So they have to basically choose eitherside where one segment of the population looses. My solution would be to create a customs border within Ukraine, haveing free trade in the East with Russia and vice versa. This way they would avoid a splintering of the country and civil war. Both segments of the population would get what they want. Oh and kick out the great powers, history shows that blood come from such meddling.
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notus
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Re: Ukraine..

Post by notus »

Russian Hind Helicopters over ukraine (not confirmed to be russian or even in ukraine) : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LYFh2lABg48

"Mobile, landline and Internet access has been cut off in parts of the Crimea region, according to a statement from Ukrtelecom, the Ukrainian National Telecommunications operator.

The company said on Friday that “unknown people seized several communications hubs in Crimea” and damaged fiber-optic cable belonging to the company. As a result, the company said it had “lost the technical capacity to provide connection between the peninsula and the rest of Ukraine and probably across the peninsula, too.” - The New York Times

Im just adding information that appears on the internet to contribute to the discussion
Hullu Hevonen
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Re: Ukraine..

Post by Hullu Hevonen »

yep, interesting facts, there's no angels in this crisis thats for sure, no internet for me would be already a reason to protest(as it is in Finland a human right). I my self try to get my facts accross the board, even watched cctv where they sourced the starting of the conflict to when Russia disapproved of Yanukovych's gov wanting to sign the free trade pact with the EU. Which Ukraine then withdraw from degotiations on the treaty to deliberate on the subject. Then small scale protests started, EU/US sent among others Germanys foreign minister there to visit protesters and even Mikheil Saakašvili visited the protesters(which Russia didn't like), this is when latest was the west got their noses dirty. Then one thing led to another with both blocks countering eachothers moves and getting more and more involved, making it less and less about Ukrain itself deciding it's path. Now their in an escalating proxy conflict similar in certain ways to how the Syrian conflict started and their now too deep in it to directly leave.
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Re: Ukraine..

Post by Hullu Hevonen »

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Re: Ukraine..

Post by notus »

http://i.imgur.com/TEoHIFJ.png

Just wanted to leave this here
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Re: Ukraine..

Post by GIJoe597 »

I generally avoid OT section, but I am truly bewildered by this move.

I am having flash backs to the Cold War days. Honestly, this is as if France decided they would take over a region of Spain claiming they are protecting French people living in that region. This is not good, not good at all. I think it is fair to type that all rational people know Putin is a ticking bomb waiting to go off, but this is just.. wow.
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Hullu Hevonen
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Re: Ukraine..

Post by Hullu Hevonen »

Wouldn't jump to conclusion yet, Russia seems to be in a sort of panic mode having to deal with 'Nato' at it's border something. Although I doubt that Russia would conduct an invaison of mainland Ukraine. Also it's still not sure if their troop moving within the legal framefork of treaties. Sending troops to Crimea could be only to reinforce the base. Also an invasion usually requires an reason, say Crimea declaring independence, Ukraine invading, Russia launching counter invasion.

"New image of Russian tanks in Ukraine", very unspecific, first of all those are not tanks, Ukraine ís also unspecific, it says in the upper corner Sevastopol which to my understanding is within the legal right of Russia. It's also technically under Russian control except for being a formal part of Ukraine and has been so since the brakeup of USSR. Russia considers Sevastopol a "federal subject" so part of it's territory. If pictures or reports arrise of Tanks moving around in say northern Crimea, then I will belive Russia has hostile intentions to invade soon.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sevastopol

Also Putin decided to invade before en of may, then he would be truly stupid, which I don't think he is, Crimea will hold a referendum on it's status within Ukraine. But is Crimea is militarily under threat I don't doubt that Russia would heitate, after all it's Russia's Hawai'i in an strategic sense, gives it access to the medatarainian through Turkey.
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Re: Ukraine..

Post by notus »

Information is really confusing right now, but moscw has said that the armored vehicles mivement in crimea is legal to the agreement between russia and ukraine for the naval base in sevastopol

http://i.imgur.com/2077Zn4.jpg - armed men in the airport
http://rt.com/news/russian-vehicles-cri ... ments-227/
http://www.politnavigator.net/svoboda-u ... tatus.html - Ukraine threats to restart nclear weapons program
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Re: Ukraine..

Post by GIJoe597 »

Appreciate the links and comments, this has the potential to become very very bad for all involved. I suppose my concern is the President of Ukraine, while in Russia, will "formally" ask Russia to come to his aid as he claims he was forced to leave by unlawful means. If the people currently in power in Ukraine ask the west for help and declare it a Russian invasion, it could spiral out of control. Especially with the other former Soviet Block nations in the area seeing Russia waltz in and take control, they may all be clamoring for NATO intervention claiming Russia is trying to reclaim lost territory of the old Soviet Union.
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Re: Ukraine..

Post by notus »

"By unanimous vote, Russian senators granted Putin the power to send in the troops to Ukraine: 87-0" - http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26400035
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Re: Ukraine..

Post by bluestreak2k5 »

Not that I'm agreeing or implying anything, but if Mexico or canada was destabilizing to the point that Ukraine is at the moment, I am pretty sure there would be US troops in their countries already. Nations do have an implicit right to help keeping other countries from going to civil war, as its just going to spread to their country as well.
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Re: Ukraine..

Post by notus »

Just a note, what i post on this topic its stuff i find on the internets, do not take any news or pictures as real until official confirmation by authorities.

So far:

The Russian Parliament has aproved Russian Troops to enter Ukraine
There is protesters in Donetsk, pro russian and pro revolution
There will be a Security Counsel meeting in NY at 19:00 GMT

Some pics of supposed "siege" at some ukrainian military bases:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BhpyPgsCYAAvXiM.jpg:large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BhqFwO1CYAAJlbK.jpg:large
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