So.. Kim Jong-Il is dead.. peaceful transition of power, or?

[Fistalis]

SEOUL, South Korea -- Kim Jong Il, North Korea's mercurial and enigmatic leader, has died. He was 69.

A state television presenter made the announcement Monday, saying that the leader died Saturday on a train trip, Reuters reported. The announcer said he had died of physical and mental over-work on his way to give "field guidance."

Full story-http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/20 ... ng-il-dies

Jong-Il has a half brother, a sister and 3 sons. While many have thought Kim Jong-un is the heir apparent.. there certainly is the potential for a power struggle, and who knows the direction PRK will take under a different ruler.
Its said he died saturday.. and around that time this story popped up.

The United States is poised to announce a significant donation of food aid to North Korea this week, the first concrete accomplishment after months of behind-the-scenes diplomatic contacts between the two wartime enemies. An agreement by North Korea to suspend its controversial uranium enrichment program will likely follow within days.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45714468/ns ... u6zdFaLOSg
Coincidence? new leadership in action? Carefully planned timing to allow the new ruler to take over with less international pressure?
Thoughts?

[Chesehead]

My guess is a civil war in the country. The current Kim jong un is a crappy leader, and all the higher ups know it. My guess is that your going to have a multi way civil war going on. The South will probably stay out of it, since it would be a bitch to peacekeep in a somewhat brainwashed population. They don't want to annex and unify Korea either since it would take too much of a toll on their economy. Everyone is pretty much predicting that it would be double to triple the scale of the German unification in 1990.
Eventually, the chinese will chose a side, that side will win the war, they'll open up a little bit, and basically be a quasi puppet state of china, since China doesn't want to deal with annexation and that would cause the South to get involved. Likewise, the chinese will head south if the South makes a move north and tries to unify, since that's the last thing Bejing wants.

[stephen]

A civil war in North Korea will most probably end up in a huge bloodbath, and it will be suppressed

[The Khan]

They don't want to annex and unify Korea either since it would take too much of a toll on their economy. Everyone is pretty much predicting that it would be double to triple the scale of the German unification in 1990.

Where did you learn that?Not to mention the SK aren't as socialistic as Europe, and may spend less over time than German Reunification.Better starting now than never!

[tkobo]

...children of dictators have historically been as bad if not worse,than their parents.

Whats likely to happen is some minor jockeying for position, a "new" push of diplomacy by those who havent learned it wont work claiming this as a "golden opportunity" for dialoque,and said push will just do nothing more than help the new dictator consolidate his power,and nothing of substance will change in nk....

[Chesehead]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... 32934.html

[The Khan]

And? What's it gonna be?

[stephen]

He has 2 tutors (his uncle and aunt), he can take decisions on his own. Kim Jong Il wasn't that stupid to leave everything in the hands of a 28 years old thad studied in Switzerland.
And a civil war is not likely, the population is way to brainwashed and fanatic. Its like they like to starve.

[Chesehead]

He has 2 tutors (his uncle and aunt), he can take decisions on his own. Kim Jong Il wasn't that stupid to leave everything in the hands of a 28 years old thad studied in Switzerland.
And a civil war is not likely, the population is way to brainwashed and fanatic. Its like they like to starve.

Wait untill he tries to consilidate his power. Right now their sharing it with the generals and when he finally does try to get it all back, they'll be a power struggle.

[tkobo]

il to be stuffed and put on permanent display....