ROMANIA - Oil production

[geminif4ucorsair]

One of the economic related items that seems in disagreement with historical, including World Almanac 1936 and 1937 editions, beta/SR-36 does not seem to use the summary figures (below):

OIL: the oil production peaked in 1936: 8.8 million tones (and, then started to decrease, which maybe the result of insufficient funds being put into maintenance, as these oil refineries were foreign owned in most cases and may have not getting funds needed, for increasingly worried about the prospects of war in the late-30s. Worth investigating further.).

Have separate figures in barrels of production and will compare shortly.

About 3 million tones were exported each year to Germany between 1941-43 and 1.4 million in 1944. The internal consumption increased from 1.7 million in 1941 to 2.5 million in 1944. So you can say that the oil production was about 5 million tones/year.

The oil processing capabilities, Ploesti refineries:

Romano-Americana refinery: 1.25 million tones/year
Concordia-Vega refinery: 1.5 million tones/year
Standard-Petrol refinery and Unirea-Speranta refinery: 1.3 million tones/year
Astra Romana refinery: 2 million tones/year
Columbia-Aquila refinery: 0.3 million tones/year
Steaua Romana refinery at Campina: 1.75 million tones/year (third largest in Europe)
Creditul Minier refinery at Brazi: 0.6 million tones/year of high octane aviation fuel

Grand total: 8.7 million tones/year.

[MK4]

Kudos for the effort! I haven`t digged into such economic specifics, but I should also mention that interbellum Romania was also among the world`s largest grain producing/exporting countries. Worth digging to see the exact numbers. I seem to remember that Keith Hitchins`s two volumes on Romania mentioned the grain exports, but it`s been a long time and I don`t remember the exact period and quantities (if any) discussed and it might relate to the pre WWI. Still, even after WWI, Romania was one of the biggest agricultural producers(in top 10 when it came to maze and grain).
http://www.stiri-economice.ro/Despre_ec ... elica.html

[bluestreak2k5]

Thats very much in line with the official League of nations records:
http://digital.library.northwestern.edu ... 0281ai.pdf

However, I believe Romania is already producing more then what your saying it produced if this is correct. This equates to about 23,000 per day, and if you fully develop all of their oil fields they easily get into the hundreds of thousands per day.

Maybe we should look into the history of German oil consumption, because I easily get into the 1-2 million consumption range per day when conquering Europe and being at 200% prices. If Romania is producing 10 times less oil its going to have huge implications on Germany.

[geminif4ucorsair]

Thats very much in line with the official League of nations records:
http://digital.library.northwestern.edu ... 0281ai.pdf
However, I believe Romania is already producing more then what your saying it produced if this is correct. This equates to about 23,000 per day, and if you fully develop all of their oil fields they easily get into the hundreds of thousands per day.
Maybe we should look into the history of German oil consumption, because I easily get into the 1-2 million consumption range per day when conquering Europe and being at 200% prices. If Romania is producing 10 times less oil its going to have huge implications on Germany.

Reference OIL production:
* 1933: 50,971,000-barrels
* 1934: 62,000,000- "

One can convert this usually at, at 7.25 barrels p/ton.

Daily Production rate: [Testimony, June 45 data]
* 1939 - 127,141-barrels p/day
* 1944 - 53,000-barrels p/day - due to ongoing Soviet offensive and occupation of most area.

COMMENT: My suspicion, based on past readings, it that Romania was not in a position to increase annual production too greatly, without more research into other potentially production oil fields. Romania's oil fields, like the Russian Baku oil fields, were beginning to reach the end of their available underground reservoir's - after-all, they had been producing for a long time (1857-60). There also was not the technology of the time to enhance drilling depths, horizontal drilling, etc. that came on-line decades later (some of these tech's are in SR or were proposed to BG to include).
Much of the investment in oil production and refineries was owned by Western companies, and with the looming war crisis in Europe, investments may also have fallen-off.
Testimony, June 1945:

Mr. Rayner, Petrol Adviser, US Dept. of State: .....at the same time the Rumanian reserves have been considered as a separate entity [from Russian reserves], although production in Rumania is definitely on the decline.

Crude Oil Reserves were at the time estimated at 392-million barrels of oil (this compares to USSR at 5.735-m. barrels.
That reserve is about 2/3rd of all Europe (632-m. barrels)

Answer to Question:
Oil Production and Exports to Germany

1939: 6,240,000t of which 1,556,000t to Germany
1940: 5,815,000t of which 1,304,000t to Germany
1941: 5,577,000t of which 3,173,700t to Germany
1942; 5,665,000t of which 2,302,400t to Germany
1943: 5,330,000t of which 2,472,700t to Germany
1944: 3,525,000t of which 1,078,900t to Germany

Between 1941-42 Romanian also export +1,000,000t to other Axis countries & Neutrals, falling to 600,000t in '43.
Romanian output had peaked in 1936 at 8,701,000-tons (some sources use 8.8-million tons).

----------
COAL Production: Lignite
* 1933: 1,314,000-metric tons
* 1934: 1,611,000- " "

Production: Bituminous
1933: 1,197,000-metric tons
1934: 227,000- " " [interesting decline, but other than 1933, which was very high compared to '1930-32, 1934 production was
in-line with these earlier years - which one must remember were early-Depression years!]
-----------
GRAIN Production:
1933 1934
Wheat: 3,240,600 2,083,500
Rye: 445,900 211,000
Maize: 4,554,400 4,846,200
Barley: 1,884,200 871,300
Oats: 806,400 563,300
Potatoes: 1,501,900 2,050,000

Note: Farmer plant, and sometimes rotate crop plantings on soils that can accommodate various grains, potatoes, etc. Without going into the
economic history of Romanian agricultural production and what may have effected the annual swings (weather, prices usually the major issues),
it should be noted that this was still in mid-Depression years. Germany was not able to afford foreign agricultural purchases to its prior levels during the pre-Depression years, which had devastating impact on the agricultural plantings of Eastern European countries - traditional source
for grains and other agricultural products for Germany.

Comment: The German's were nearly starving in comparison to the French during the Depression, caused by the Depression. Germany relied on exports in the industrial goods sector to a great degrees, when East European, Latin American and Asian markets were hit by the financial collapse, they did not have the monies to import products on the scale of the 1920s - meaning Germany could not sell, if Germany could not sell, it no longer could buy....and, that collapsed the Eastern European good markets (Bulgaria was the hardest hit country in E.Europe during the Depression)....and, Germany could no longer import its prior levels of grain, fruits, produce, etc.....hence, the carry-over of scare food sources in German cities pre-1939.

It is also clear from this background why the Hitler-Stalin pact was important - Russia was sending oil and grains in great quantities, in exchange for German industrial goods, during a period when the German's still did not have enough industrial exports to meet import demands
for food, etc.
--------

[bluestreak2k5]

Thats very much in line with the official League of nations records:
http://digital.library.northwestern.edu ... 0281ai.pdf
However, I believe Romania is already producing more then what your saying it produced if this is correct. This equates to about 23,000 per day, and if you fully develop all of their oil fields they easily get into the hundreds of thousands per day.
Maybe we should look into the history of German oil consumption, because I easily get into the 1-2 million consumption range per day when conquering Europe and being at 200% prices. If Romania is producing 10 times less oil its going to have huge implications on Germany.

Reference OIL production:
* 1933: 50,971,000-barrels
* 1934: 62,000,000- "

One can convert this usually at, at 7.25 barrels p/ton.

Answer to Question:
Oil Production and Exports to Germany

1939: 6,240,000t of which 1,556,000t to Germany
1940: 5,815,000t of which 1,304,000t to Germany
1941: 5,577,000t of which 3,173,700t to Germany
1942; 5,665,000t of which 2,302,400t to Germany
1943: 5,330,000t of which 2,472,700t to Germany
1944: 3,525,000t of which 1,078,900t to Germany

Between 1941-42 Romanian also export +1,000,000t to other Axis countries & Neutrals, falling to 600,000t in '43.
Romanian output had peaked in 1936 at 8,701,000-tons (some sources use 8.8-million tons).

----------
COAL Production: Lignite
* 1933: 1,314,000-metric tons
* 1934: 1,611,000- " "

Production: Bituminous
1933: 1,197,000-metric tons
1934: 227,000- " " [interesting decline, but other than 1933, which was very high compared to '1930-32, 1934 production was
in-line with these earlier years - which one must remember were early-Depression years!]
-----------
GRAIN Production:
1933 1934
Wheat: 3,240,600 2,083,500
Rye: 445,900 211,000
Maize: 4,554,400 4,846,200
Barley: 1,884,200 871,300
Oats: 806,400 563,300
Potatoes: 1,501,900 2,050,000

Note: Farmer plant, and sometimes rotate crop plantings on soils that can accommodate various grains, potatoes, etc. Without going into the
economic history of Romanian agricultural production and what may have effected the annual swings (weather, prices usually the major issues),
it should be noted that this was still in mid-Depression years. Germany was not able to afford foreign agricultural purchases to its prior levels during the pre-Depression years, which had devastating impact on the agricultural plantings of Eastern European countries - traditional source
for grains and other agricultural products for Germany.

Comment: The German's were nearly starving in comparison to the French during the Depression, caused by the Depression. Germany relied on exports in the industrial goods sector to a great degrees, when East European, Latin American and Asian markets were hit by the financial collapse, they did not have the monies to import products on the scale of the 1920s - meaning Germany could not sell, if Germany could not sell, it no longer could buy....and, that collapsed the Eastern European good markets (Bulgaria was the hardest hit country in E.Europe during the Depression)....and, Germany could no longer import its prior levels of grain, fruits, produce, etc.....hence, the carry-over of scare food sources in German cities pre-1939.

It is also clear from this background why the Hitler-Stalin pact was important - Russia was sending oil and grains in great quantities, in exchange for German industrial goods, during a period when the German's still did not have enough industrial exports to meet import demands
for food, etc.
--------

That's great and all but what I am saying is as GER, I produce nearly 200,000 tons of oil per day once I have fixed my supply issues. Romania has like 25 resource fields that you can build oil on, and if you fully develop all of these you can easily produce around 500,000 tons of oil per day or more depending on supply and Approval rating.

Now the documents we are discussing says it was in the millions per year, 6,240,000 tons per year is only 17,095 tons per day, which is about 30 times less then what you can actually produce in game.

So it seems like its an issue with consumption levels in game, because in game I easily get to 1.2 million tons consumption in 1941 as GERMANY at 200% prices with Europe conquered, which equates to 8.7 million barrels per day. To give a comparison modern day USA consumes 17 million barrels per day. While all of EU together consumes something like 13 million barrels.

So my question is if we force this change on Romania to be more realistic, what are the 1941 consumption levels of oil for Germany. We can't cut Europes Oil production down to 1/30 of what it used to make and not cut consumption to historical figures as well.

I'm all for historical accuracy, but they also have to balance the game. Germany was not able to import much Oil, so everything had to be produced in Greater Germany.

[geminif4ucorsair]

First, not the Edit additions to the above post....including the 1939 average daily production:

Daily Production rate: [Testimony, June 45 data]
* 1939 - 127,141-barrels p/day.

It would seem that we have to bring out the historical production for all Regions, based on your presumptions, before SR-1936 is released.
Otherwise, the data by looking at just one region (Romania) is a bit skewed (maybe) in relation to "demand", both in Germany and throughout peacetime mid-/late-30s Europe.

NOTE.
Germany: The Reitbrook oil field was discovered in 1937; thru the end of 1944, it produced @ 7-million barrels of crude oil.
Another smaller field, discovered in 1942, netted @ 100,000-barrels by the end of 1944.

Going back to more productive period (1923-24), i.e. no Depression, German demand was 11,000-barrels p/day and domestic production 900-barels p/day. Since Germany was importing crude oil to be broken down into kerosene, gasoline, asphalt products, etc., domestic refinery capacity was 5,000-barrels p/day (to handle the imported oil).
The point of this is: there should be a minimum of existing Oil Fields in Germany at the beginning of SR-1936.
The German oil refineries were all in the vicinity of Ratisbon (Bavaria).

The point of this is: there should be a minimum of existing Oil Fields in Germany at the beginning of SR-1936.

At this point, one cannot break-down your discussion further, because [1] we Europe's full Oil production - and demand - are not yet presented in historical terms [though one could cycle thru all the European countries in the beta/SR-36 to see what production and demand have been set by Battlegoat]; and, 2] the extend of non-Romanian imports to Germany (and others) has also not bee. presented.

As for Battlegoat's data, we don't know if was a download from SR-Cold War (SR-49) or where the data was derived from - hence, it is too early to do other than lay out the whole production and demand level at some point, for all regions. I would have to lay this out on another day....

BG want to tell us where the data came from?

[bluestreak2k5]

It would seem that we have to bring out the historical production for all Regions, based on your presumptions, before SR-1936 is released.

No I'm just saying that this isn't like a small change. The difference between what is in the game right now and what it was historically is a factor or more then 20 it seems. This is going to greatly unbalance things, especially in Europe. It's already hard enough for Germany to get oil.

I would rather they fix other things before breaking the entire world economy first. Everything depends on oil.

Doing a little research into the price of oil, it also seems like oil prices should drop some in SR 1936. I can't actually find any source of Oil during the war, but according to this http://www9.georgetown.edu/faculty/imo3/petrod/poo.htm there was no "world" price of oil during the war. It was based on regions.

The first "world" price for a barrel of oil came in 1947 where it was $2.18 for 1 barrel which is $15.805 a ton by 1947. I've gotten up to $13 a ton by 1942 in some games, so it seems like the the starting price of $7 should be dropped to $5 or $6 as well.

Also I will admit, I did get a little ahead of myself. I am comparing "potential" Romania production to the numbers you are listing. Romania has about 20% of its oil fields in the game developed. I actually have no idea how many tons of oil they are producing at the beginning of 1936.

I do know that as Germany once I add the 8 or so oil wells at the beginning of the game my production goes from about 70k to 200k tons per day production, but I still have 400k demand everyday at the start of 1936.

[geminif4ucorsair]

It would seem that we have to bring out the historical production for all Regions, based on your presumptions, before SR-1936 is released.

Doing a little research into the price of oil, it also seems like oil prices should drop some in SR 1936. I can't actually find any source of Oil during the war, but according to this http://www9.georgetown.edu/faculty/imo3/petrod/poo.htm there was no "world" price of oil during the war. It was based on regions.

The first "world" price for a barrel of oil came in 1947 where it was $2.18 for 1 barrel which is $15.805 a ton by 1947. I've gotten up to $13 a ton by 1942 in some games, so it seems like the the starting price of $7 should be dropped to $5 or $6 as well.

Also I will admit, I did get a little ahead of myself. I am comparing "potential" Romania production to the numbers you are listing. Romania has about 20% of its oil fields in the game developed. I actually have no idea how many tons of oil they are producing at the beginning of 1936..

I have various pre-war oil prices - just not the time to put this whole Oil and economic issues online....am still trying to get the missing entries for the military units finished.

Fear not "getting ahead of oneself"....am sure the posts are appreciated by all.