Economy is still broken somehow.

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rbilka
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Re: Economy is still broken somehow.

Post by rbilka »

George Geczy wrote:During the development of Update 3 (and as part of some of the beta-test versions of U3 released over the last few months), a number of economic changes were made.
One set of changes involved the calculation of production costs as resource availability and gdp values change, etc.
Thank you for explanation, so it is mainly as I feared.
George Geczy wrote:While at first glance it may seem that a country (ie, US) should not have its production costs change due to external factors (such as a world shortage), this actually only holds true for a perfect state-controlled system. In reality, the US (and even the communist countries of the 1950's) have market forces affect the costs of their goods. In a capitalist economy this would include things like profits to the corporations, etc. So when the world price of oil rises, even the cost that the US government pays to buy its own oil goes up.
You have true, but mainly for countryes with "market economy" (globalised capitalism).
However, this is not so true in countryes with "planned economy" (socialistics countryes trying to build communism = warsaw pact).
You see, in "planned economy" everything is in "tons", "liters" and so, there was no price involved. Goods was priced by market value only when they leave "domestic/warsaw pact" union, and enters the world market with rest (mostly capitalistics) countryes. So warsaw pact have almost "resource based economy" inside, and "market economy outside". When there was not enought of some resource, there was simple not enought such goods in shops. When there was plenty of resource, but on capitalistics external world market price of that resource was rising, they shift more resource to sell on global market for USD, and there was less for domestic production/consupmtion.
George Geczy wrote:This is admittedly imprecise and maybe even a bit arbitrary, but it is more realistic than having an world "OPEC" price for oil at $60/barrel and having the US govt pay $6/barrel to produce its own oil. More importantly, this change significantly increased both the realism of the economic model, and also improved the gameplay, preventing many exploits and ahistorical results.
US was heavy depending on importing OIL all the time, much much more than Warsaw pact. Warsaw pact have imported oil from Soviet Union, and many times it was barter agreement. When in 80' was economy crisis in west market countryes, we in "communism" was not know about that. Again, in "planned economy" you have every year goal, like pump such amount galons of OIL, and that amount will go to those factories and etc. When you produce more, it would be probably salled on capitalistic market for current market price. Prices was always printed directly from factoryes on every good (every shop was having exact the same prices), and some have not changed over 5-10years, despite big economy crisis in west.

Therefore was I see important:
PRODUCTION COST should be calculated only from (related to):
1) AVERAGE ACQUISITION COST of current state=domestic SUPPLY of necessary comodities/resources (=national asset).
2) AVERAGE DOMESTIC WAGE

AVERAGE DOMESTIC WAGE can be calculated as % from GDP with undirect correlation to the unemployment (probably more complicated calculation needed)

AVERAGE DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION should be calculated as: ( (AVERAGE DOMESTIC WAGE) - (DOMESTIC TAXATION) ) / (domestic price of consumer basket)

When you calculate production costs from global market prices, than domestics economy does no matter anymore.
Production costs must be always calculated only from domestic prices (from assets = average price of supply), as it is in reality. When they does not have enought resources in supply to produce, they simply must buy that resource from global market (or production drops), and that change average domestic price of that resource. In case that country have no own production of that resource, all is imported, that of course average domestic resource price would be the same as global market price for that resource. But it seems, that you in game don't calculate value of national assets (supply) at all. And this is from my point of view first and main problem.
Without this, you can not simple calculate domestic prices, domestic consumption. Because in your game you can not have country with small GDP, which can have still bigger living standard and bigger domestic consumption, than country with much much bigger GDP. But this was right fro some countryes in history. GDP does not mean anything in real economy.
When country is creating huge oil reserve for 2 years, when OIL is cheap, and next 2 years, when oil prices are trippled, that country do not need to buy oil, but simple work from oil reserves (national asset/supply). Therefore, that country can produce products for domestic economy still cheap as beffore, despite that rest of world production costs are tripled!

Please, consider to change current model. This is only one "close to reality" simulator on the world (at least for me). And domestic economy VS export is base of every economy model. There is important difference between "market economy" = (in capitalism) and "planned economy" = (in socialism=communism). Right now, as it is, it is simulatin only WEST global economy.
PyongYang
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Re: Economy is still broken somehow.

Post by PyongYang »

Sorry what? I was MILES AWAY then.... 8)
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Anthropoid
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Re: Economy is still broken somehow.

Post by Anthropoid »

I put off really reading this thread until I had played SRCW a bit. My experience so far is in my "Egypt - The Newest Kingdom" AAR.

I don't have nearly the specific ideas that rbilka has offered, but I have to say: in comparing how the economy works in SR2020 with how it works in SRCW, I'm feeling like SR2020 is (a) a bit more generous with how easy it is to make money [SRCW = better in this respect]; (b) a bit more (seemingly) realistic in how numbers fluctuate uppish and downish [SR2020 = better on this one]; (c) a bit less micro-manage intensive than SRCW [again SR2020 = better IMO].

All of my experience with both games has been playing as Egypt so the experiences are comparable but limited and may not generalize to all playable roles.

The fact that money is a bit more tight and growing an economy a bit slower and more difficult in SRCW I find to be a plus. The one thing I've observed in SRCW that does go along with what the OP was saying and which I think might need a bt more attention is that, prices do fluctuate a lot. In SR2020, I generally lock my Production Minister out and pretty much _never_ unlock them, relying almost exclusively on diplomatic sales to make money until I can get my pop size/wealth high enough that I strike a healthy balance between taxation-spending as a primary way to keep my treasury green.

This hasn't worked in SRCW as well, I'm not entirely sure why, but it seems in part to be that market prices are flucuating up/down by magnitudes of 10 to 25% on an almost daily basis (estimates). Consequently, the Minister is actually a lot better in SRCW at making money for me if I unlock a commodity that I produce in excess and tell him to maximize profit. The other option being: I lock them down, and then every couple days slide my bulk sales to sell off all my stock at just slightly below market. Trying to leave it locked but with auto-sale a significant fraction seems to = red treasury.

So, you may ask, why not just let your Minister export trade the commodities you produce in excess and be happy with it? Because quite simply, he seems to do silly things when I give him control of products. For example, I unlock food and water which Egypt produces aplenty. I leave it for a couple days and then have a peak. My trades are tending to be red minus values and when I look at what he is doing?

Production is at 100% (far in excess of domestic demand); domestic markup is at about 45% (far less than what the citizens can sustain); Suplus to sell is at 100% (okay fine, but as already noted, when I set this with the product locked I don't seem to make any profit which might explain the red minus values in trade?); Bulk Sales for some reason have values set??

This post is intended to be helpful in the event that there is still some consideration for how the economic model could be/needs to be tweaked. As I've said I think you guys got SR2020 Gold adjusted into a pretty close to perfect state, so getting SRCW there too seems inevitable; well except that, it IS rather easy to make a LOT of money in SR2020 (on normal and as Egypt anyway). Hopefully feedback might be helpful in clarifying what is working as intended and what is not. Be happy to experiment with specific parameters if it would help.
Aragos
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Re: Economy is still broken somehow.

Post by Aragos »

Anth--

Keep in mind that the 1949 world economy is not as developed or robust as that reflected in SR2020. Simply put, there are less production facilities, inflation, etc. in place in the 1949 scenario than in one taking place 50+ years later. This makes for a somewhat 'smaller' economy that will take a while to level out (if I dont blow up the world, the economy is fairly stable by the 1960s).

One thing that does lead to stagnation is that the AI will not build new industrial centers, so places like Saudi Arabia will never exploit their oil, etc.
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Anthropoid
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Re: Economy is still broken somehow.

Post by Anthropoid »

Yes! The fact that the volumes, values and so forth seem very properly scaled for the era is awesome :)
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Balthagor
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Re: Economy is still broken somehow.

Post by Balthagor »

Aragos wrote:...One thing that does lead to stagnation is that the AI will not build new industrial centers, so places like Saudi Arabia will never exploit their oil, etc.
A stop-gap measure was put in place of adding a few empty complexes in some key places of the world. Also, with more development time, scripted events could get more facilities where they are needed as the game progresses. I'm probably the least familiar in the studio, but isn't there an event to start construction of a facility?
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Re: Economy is still broken somehow.

Post by Fistalis »

Balthagor wrote:
Aragos wrote:...One thing that does lead to stagnation is that the AI will not build new industrial centers, so places like Saudi Arabia will never exploit their oil, etc.
A stop-gap measure was put in place of adding a few empty complexes in some key places of the world. Also, with more development time, scripted events could get more facilities where they are needed as the game progresses. I'm probably the least familiar in the studio, but isn't there an event to start construction of a facility?
Yes. Didn't you just finish transferring the event data to the new wiki.. you just copy and paste don't ya? :lol:
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Re: Economy is still broken somehow.

Post by Balthagor »

mostly, though I have to consider formatting. Some pages get broken into multiple pieces. And each image has to be downloaded and reuploaded to the new site. Plus, there are some Drupal modules we're still configuring.
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Re: Economy is still broken somehow.

Post by Aragos »

What would be great (hint, hint) is if the AI settings could be tweaked to higher levels of development, much like they are with military production.

Example: Let's say a setting from -1 to 1. 1= Very High AI economic development, -1 mean 0 development. At 1, the AI will look at any/all resources that would allow for an industrial center and at least 2 resources and then build them to exploit the resource. 0 setting would be to build only on locations that have 4+ resources.


I think this is the major weakness in SRCW, more so than AI use of carriers, pathing, et al. The AI cannot exploit its resources, which means the economy--except where the human player is concern--is effectively stagnant from 1949. That means Saudi Arabia or Indonesia do not build oil wells, Vietnam does not export timber, the world market effectively freezes for IGs, CGs, MG, and so on.

I think that if the AI could be tweaked to do this is would greatly add to the replayablity of what is otherwise an awesome game.
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Re: Economy is still broken somehow.

Post by Aragos »

Balthagor wrote:
Aragos wrote:...One thing that does lead to stagnation is that the AI will not build new industrial centers, so places like Saudi Arabia will never exploit their oil, etc.
A stop-gap measure was put in place of adding a few empty complexes in some key places of the world. Also, with more development time, scripted events could get more facilities where they are needed as the game progresses. I'm probably the least familiar in the studio, but isn't there an event to start construction of a facility?
I'm tempted to make my next mod a straight up economic/building mod, with loads of nothing but scripted events with empty complexes.
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Re: Economy is still broken somehow.

Post by Balthagor »

Aragos wrote:I'm tempted to make my next mod a straight up economic/building mod, with loads of nothing but scripted events with empty complexes.
Note that a Scenario can use multiple event .csv files. If you made a file that had just facility building events, any other users could also use it with their mods.

example;
...
#endifset

#include "LocalText-RegionsGC.csv", "SCENARIO\", Y
#include "Cold War-Text.csv", "SCENARIO\", Y
#include "eventset1.csv", "SCENARIO\", Y
#include "eventset2.csv", "SCENARIO\", Y
#include "eventset3.csv", "SCENARIO\", Y


&&GMC
startymd: 1949, 10, 8
...
If you put them in that section of the file they aren't even cache dependent.
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Aragos
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Re: Economy is still broken somehow.

Post by Aragos »

Thanks Balt! That saves a LOT of time not having to cache first.

I think the best way to do this is nation-by-nation, focusing on one resource (e.g., Oil) at a time, see the effects and go from there. I'll probably start with Oil, focus on the big producers (USSR, USA, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq) and go from there. It will probably be pretty rough--just events that dump a new building/design "start construction" on an unused resource spot at various time periods (start + 1 year, etc.)

Not the most nuanced way, but it seems like it would work.
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Anthropoid
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Re: Economy is still broken somehow.

Post by Anthropoid »

Aragos wrote:Thanks Balt! That saves a LOT of time not having to cache first.

I think the best way to do this is nation-by-nation, focusing on one resource (e.g., Oil) at a time, see the effects and go from there. I'll probably start with Oil, focus on the big producers (USSR, USA, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq) and go from there. It will probably be pretty rough--just events that dump a new building/design "start construction" on an unused resource spot at various time periods (start + 1 year, etc.)

Not the most nuanced way, but it seems like it would work.
Sounds cool PM me if you need a monkey to run tests.
Last edited by Anthropoid on Jan 16 2013, edited 1 time in total.
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Balthagor
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Re: Economy is still broken somehow.

Post by Balthagor »

ATM I'm still thinking that the OP was overstating some of the economic limitations of the engine. Anyone thing I've missed something glaring? I've been skimming this thread, other things on my plate right now...
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Re: Economy is still broken somehow.

Post by Aragos »

Balthagor wrote:ATM I'm still thinking that the OP was overstating some of the economic limitations of the engine. Anyone thing I've missed something glaring? I've been skimming this thread, other things on my plate right now...
I think he had some general questions on how the system worked, etc. The last point about oil he makes (that his domestic production/etc should have nothing to do with the world market) is off base, historically. No nation, post 1750 or so, could operate in a closed system for long. Consequently, if the price of oil goes up (even if you aren't 'importing' any yourself) it effects the entire oil production system (e.g., you are playing Philipines and are good on oil, but the rest of the world's demands mean that everything it takes to 'make' oil (parts, drills, etc.) all go up in price, which in turn impacts your costs as well).
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