Money value, inflation, import and exports

Discussion of the Economic Model in SR2010

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The_Blind_One
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Money value, inflation, import and exports

Post by The_Blind_One »

I was just thinking about inflation.

Inflation basictly means the depreciation of money. So if inflation is 25%, then the money I have should be worth 25% than it was last year.

Can't we just model it in such a way that all IMPORTS and EXPORTS are effected by this?

If the inflation is 25% then...

Export = Price u want to sell to world market - 25% (makes it hard to get rid of ur excess production)
Import = Price u want to buy from world market + 25% (makes it very expensive to import)

This would surely keep any man from trying to get his economy from overheating. As overheating in this case would mean suicide and total economic collapse. Only self-sufficiency would safe the region, and that would also be nearly impossible because of rising costs and the like.

Plz think about it :), this way u simulate inflation just a bit better and rewards players for keeping inflation in check and an healthy economy :lol:

Currently u can boost ur GDP and increase ur inflation till unprecedented levels without really any negative influence, with this slight change it should make inflation more REALISTIC and more dangerous and should make the game economicly more challenging :), it should be fairly easy to code in because it just requires a slight attachment to the import and export formula's :D

What do u guys think?
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haenkie
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Post by haenkie »

just one thought it cannot be negative both ways right?

I mean if you ahev a high inflation it cannot be that both import and export gets thougher. Shouldnt export be easier. but this also has a LOT to do with the value your currency has. And as everybody is paying in the same currency i think it is really though to implement it. because then you ahve to have differnet sets of money!
The_Blind_One
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Post by The_Blind_One »

I will try to explain it to you.
And as everybody is paying in the same currency i think it is really though to implement it. because then you ahve to have differnet sets of money!
I am aware that it is impossible to create multiple currencies in the game due to limitations, therefore just applying the currency value changers ingame should fix this and it should pose no problem.

Yes there is just one currency, but as each region is different, inflation and real value of the currency is also different. So by just applying inflation correction it should properly simulate different currencies while just using one currency.
mean if you ahev a high inflation it cannot be that both import and export gets thougher.
If u know that region A has an inflation of 25%, that means that when buying from them, u pay 25% extra to backup their inflation problem. Wich practicly means ur PAYING 25% extra, while u ur goods arn't worth that amount of money. The value of the goods isn't worth the price u paid for the them, therefore naturally people ask lower prices from u to insure the value of the goods that they buy.

With import it's the same, if u know that their money is worth 25% less than the money in another region, than that region will ask 25% more money for the same amount of goods.

This can work in reverse too, if there's deflation it will make imports easier, and exports more profitable.

Grrr I suck at explaining, hope u slightly understand.
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haenkie
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Post by haenkie »

slightly :lol:
but these things are normally leveled out with the amount of value given to a certain currency.

And i was also a bit mentioning the game, because whatever you do you always will want some inflation. Or elese the game will give deflation a heads up and that is not what any country normally wants
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George Geczy
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Post by George Geczy »

As mentioned above, given the 'unified world currency' of 2010, inflation works a bit differently than it would in a world where currency markets would make adjustments.

In effect, it is somewhat like the modern Euro zone, where there is a common currency but inflation rates can differ somewhat from region to region.

Among other things, the common currency also creates a stabilizing effect, meaning that hyper-inflation (inflation rates much higher than 100%) are no longer possible, the same with significant deflation. The external effect of the currency standards prevents this.

I have, for the next update, modified the inflation model a bit, and that should actually add even more realism to the effects of longer-term inflation in the game. One result should be that low-wage nations (third world etc) can have a continous gradual increasing of wages (and prices) as their economies grow towards Western standards, whereas before this many of the smaller economies started to hiccup after a certain point.

While researching this, I ran into this interesting quote in the "Concise Encyclopedia of Economics":

In effect, inflation is a form of taxation where the government gains at the expense of those who hold money whose value is declining.

-- George.
The_Blind_One
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Post by The_Blind_One »

Cool so we can actually let our economy GROW in the next update?

As of now u can only maximise ur economy, but if we can actually let it grow that would be awesome for long-term gameplay :D :lol:

Is that correct? Can we let our economies grow for real now? 8)
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George Geczy
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Post by George Geczy »

The_Blind_One wrote:Is that correct? Can we let our economies grow for real now?
I hope I'm not setting expectations too high on this one, but as explained in the other thread, this is the idea. Just starting to test it now.
The_Blind_One
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Post by The_Blind_One »

Sweetness, plz keep us informed, I'd love the ability, NAY I'd BEG for the ability to have real economic growth!!! :D
Rothbardian
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Post by Rothbardian »

Inflation basictly means the depreciation of money. So if inflation is 25%, then the money I have should be worth 25% than it was last year.
You're missing a word in there. I assume you meant worth 25% less than it was last year, but that's not quite right.

Imagine a money supply of $100, with an annual inflation rate of 25%. That means the following year the money supply is at $125.
What does this do to prices? If the supply of goods that money can buy remains static you have more money chasing the same pool of goods, so all things remaining equal (demand, etc.) prices would rise. A widget that cost $10 when the money supply was at $100 would cost $12.5. Your $10 saved from last year would have 80% of the purchasing power it had last year, a 20% loss, after the 25% increase in money supply.
What happened to your 20% of purchasing power? It was taken in effect by the government when they issued a bond. Their borrowing serves as the basis for fractional bank reserves so that banks can increase the money supply - giving your purchasing power to whoever will pay the bank's interest rates. It can also be taken by central bank purchases of bonds - the central bank being authorized to print money for that transaction, and thereby increasing the money supply.

The reality is, all other things don't remain equal. Productivity improves, driving down costs, production increases, driving down costs, and consumers are constantly presented new alternatives in competition, which compels producers to keep down costs. Even if the supply of goods rose in perfect concert with the supply of money people might not feel like buying additional units of the goods they bought last year. There is a diminishing sense of satisfaction in purchasing additional goods, just because you have more money this year doesn't mean you feel the need to have two digital cameras.
Quantifying the subjective consumer's decisions is folly, but the government tries to in order to assure it isn't creating so much excess money to fund itself that it destabilizes the capital structure of the actual wealth producing sectors of the economy. The more loans underwritten to inflate the money supply mean more defaults - wealth lost in consumption, or non-profitable enterprises. The pool of successful entrepeneurs isn't limitless, and interest rates are supposed to direct the capital to those who are best at handling it. Inflating the money supply subverts this market efficiency, and monetary deflation is the consequence when the bad loans come due.

Increasing GDP figures debased with high inflation should not be considered economic growth. Price deflation is the norm of growing economies (as the goods grow relative to money supply), and obvious everywhere in the economy around us except where productivity gains are overwhelmed by inflation or union restrictions on the labor supply.
Increasing economic growth should be represented with real GDP growth, which is accentuated by increasing the portion of the economy dedicated to wealth generation (reducing government consumption as a percentage of real GDP).
You cannot in real life, and should not in the game, be able to print your way to prosperity.

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