War came to the Ethiopian's on Oct 11, 2017.
Kenyan Federation (Kenya and Somalia) declared war via the AI. No premeditation. No advanced decline in State-to-State relations - in fact, the little relations bar line was hardly moved fm left-to-right (all green).
October 11 observations:
* KENYAN FORCES. Kenyan forces were not in border or forward-deployed positions. Most Kenyan forces were in Kenya proper, with an average of two units in each Somali city, except Mogadishu which has a dozen-plus units. On the northern Kenyan border, forces in Marsabit were the nearest Ethiopia.
Somalia-area garrison generally consisted of one Garrison and one Light Infantry unit, with a couple Engineer units on Patrol.
Kenya's military appears to have been all AI allocated and provided equipment from Offers. [Clue to this came from earlier foreign relations efforts to buy equipment designs fm Kenya, but had none....valid or not observation.]
* ETHIOPIA FORCES.
In production: 2 T-62, 1 Mi-2 Hoplite, 2 PZL W3-W transport.
Placed into Production: 2 Lt. Infantry; 2 BRDM-2 AT; 2 2S1 Gordzdika SPG and 2 2S19M SPM; 2 Supply Truck and 1 Hvy Supply Truck.
[This put Ethiopia's Mil Goods (MGds) just beyond current limit with one MGds facility.]
Plans to modernize a Commerical Gds plant were put on hold and a MilGds plant was begun instead. Ethiopian Treasury was @ 1.2 BN at start of war and just short of Social spending recommendation, with DAR at @ 23% and rising due to recent increases in social spending. [Will post screen shots saved later...]
Ethiopia's main front was always viewed as against Sudan, whose units are almost spilling-over the border! Ethiopia's best tanks (T-62) and other equipment was deployed in this zone; older vehicles generally kept to deploy against Kenya and Somalia zones, incl. T-55, BRDM-2, etc. Most older equipment (BRDM-1, BTR-60, BM-21 MRL, etc) largely kept in Reserve.
Artillery's best - 2S1 SPG, 2S19 SPM and Caesar SPG were largely deployed for defensive ops against a Sudan attack. Redeployments of some units began immediately to Somali-Kenya border - with MilOutpost or MilBase (Addis Ababa) mobilized all reserves at their facilities, other than keeping most SA-2 Guideline and SA-7 Grail in reserve. No immediate air threat envisioned [due to weak AI management of air assets].
WAR OPERATIONS, OCT 12 (DAY 2):
* Attack on Djibouti:
Kenyan Defenders: 1 Lt Infantry, 1 Garrison
Ethiopian Attack: 3 YW-531 (+1 joins) APC, 1 C-62 Lt Tank
Support: 2 2S1 SPG, 1 2S19 SPM, 1 Supply Truck.
Battle: One day artillery and APC assault results in death of both defending units and capture of town early Oct 13th. No attacker losses, but C-62 Lt Tank withdrawn before capture when @ 50% damaged - showing weakness of vehicle design [which is more a Recon vehicle than tank ala PT-76].
* Attack on Berbera:
Kenyan defenders: 2 Lt Infantry, 1 Garrison
Ethiopian Attack: 3 T-55, 1 MT-LB Support: 1 2S1 SPG, 1 BM-21, 2 Supply Trucks.
Battle: Artillery placed in second hex away - behind attacking tanks + APC - to provide distant arty support. Garrison first died, followed by one Lt Infantry; second Lt Infantry destroyed by arty during retreat out of town. Reinforcements from Djibouti attack did not make it to battle before Berbera falls Oct 13th (Day 3).
* Naval Battle off Berbera: Ethiopia navy deployed southward - 1 Osa-I, 4 FABG-5 PC and 1 PC (generic). Kenya had 1 x P-3121 Madaraka PC offshore and in short battle, Madaraka was destroyed.
* Operations north of Lodwar town & Attack on Lodwar.
This area is terrain restricted, north of town at the northern lake area and due to Tanzanian border nearness. Lodwar town defending Engineer moved northward on Day 2, as we cross border fm MilOps fac located 100-km north of border (newest fac built specifically as staging and supply source against southern Sudanese border area).
First Battle, north of Lodwar:
Kenya Defender: 1 Engineer;
Ethiopian Attack: 2 T-55, 1 Lt Inf, 1 BTR-60, 1 BRDM-2 AT. Support: 1 BM-21 (122mm) MRL.
Engineer initially did well holding up attack but withdrew toward town and joined north of town by Lt Infantry - apparently town had reserve Garrison which showed up before final battle with Eng. & Lt. Infantry destroyed both north of town.
Before attack on Lodwar, Ethiopian reinforcements incl 2 Mi-2 Hoplite and 1 PZL W3-W transport helicopter; Mi-2s were used in final attack on Kenyan Eng & Lt Infantry units.
During this period, it became apparent that Tanzania may have granted Land Transit Rights to Kenyan forces, some of whom deployed northward and west of Lodwar city; before Lodwar Garrison was overrun, battle began as a Kenyan Engineer unit crossed border from Tanzania. Ethiopian forces redeployed 1 T-55, Lt Infantry, BTR-60 units, combined with helo attacks, eventually destroying the Kenyan engineer unit.
Ethiopia Air Transported from Addis Ababa a Garrison unit to our MilOutpost, reinforcing Garrision unit built there after based was finished.
Both began land transit (walk baby walk
) to man Lodwar and provide for future garrison to power plant located to south, when it is seized.
Notice of Kenyan casualties thus far: 37,400.
Kenya Front & Observations:
War in this area, along the main route from Kenya's capital was expected to be the main center of war operations during the first couple weeks of war.
Our broad strategy was to establish two Front's: one, representing Somalia, the second, the main front of operations centered initially on Marsabit city.
Somalia Front would focus initially in taking the northern towns of Berbera and Djibouti, then move east to take port, then south to Mogadishu. By this time, reinforcements could be brought into this front, mostly from mobilized T-55s and some reinforcement with 2S1 and BM-21 arty units.
The main focus of his forces is at Mogadishu, a wide mix of tanks, air defense, arty and apparent transport aircraft. Expecting 5-7 days ops to reach this objective. Due to extended range from bases in Ethiopia, this area needs supply help, and we've brought in Hvy Supply Truck's and used a C-130 Hercules out of Addis Ababa routinely to resupply.
Kenya Front: main line of Kenyan offensive is likely along the road north and eventually south of Marsabit city. We'll concentrate most of our quality tanks (T-62) and arty along this front to defeat forces coming along this axis, with Mi-2 used whenever possible to aid ground fight. Helo has some attack capability; PZL W3-W is useful for transport/resupply only.
One T-62 Brigade will come from Addis Ababa; later, a second T-62 Brigade will be brought from Sudan Front to continue operations south of Marsabit (if all goes well
Small town of Wajir to east of Marsabit will create second front but basically part of main front zone of operations, as would be Garoowe and Bandarbeyle towns/small cities. Operations on this front are expected @ Oct 14th, as Kenyan forces have begun deploying north of Barsabit.
OBSERVATIONS. Before the Battle for Marsabit began, four BRDMs deployed north out of the town to engage us across our border. We met them with a mixed force from a Small MilBase built well north of the border, along with a Airstrip near a Agric Fac in the area. These were built because distance on this front from Addis Ababa is so far. Airstrip aircraft basing was 1xMig-21 Fishbed, two PZL W3-W until reinforcements were brought in from Addis Ababa: 1 x Mig-23 Flogger f/b, 2 x NC-1L transports, and 2 x Mi-2 Hoplite and 2 x PZL W3-W helicopters.
The AI deployed these BRDM-1 or -2 recon vehicle northward, but quickly they went "out of gas" - red lined
- as did other Kenyan units - maybe 15-18 vehicles moving northward west of Marsabit toward poss. enroute to Lodwar.....but unable to get far, because ALL ran out of gas!
This is a major problem apparently with AI management of forces - why move them when there is no gas? Kenya apparently is Critically Short of Petroleum (to use the email notice term). While we have no such shortages - and no oil fields to develop - Ethiopia has kept its treasury up the last three months in order to slowly increase Social spending, yet keep budget in balance and with reasonable reserve (created by selling Agric, Timber, Commerical Gds and sometimes small amounts of MilGds).
This allows Ethiopia to apparently "buy" fm AI (set on AutoBuy) POL....and "keep moving".
* Battle North of Marsabit:
Kenya Defenders: 4 x BRDM-1
Ethiopian Attack: 3 T-55, 1 BTR-60; Support: 1 2S1 SPG, 1 2S19 SPM
BRDMs, out of gas, became sitting ducks but a hard fought battle lasting one-day plus on Oct 13th. With air attacks from Mi-2 and couple Mig-23 f/b attacks, resulted in 2 BRDM-1s destroyed by mixed fire fm attacking ground forces + Mi-35 getting final credit for destroying 2 damaged BRDMs; second pair of BRDMs tried to withdraw and were destroyed by tank fire.
Kenyan Reinforcements: along the main road, Kenyan reinforcements were deployed as the battle north of Marsabit continued; comprising: 2 x
BMP-1, 1 WZ-501 APC, 2 BRDM-2 vehicles (all red lined for lack of fuel).
Ethiopian forces continued the battle towards Marsabit to engage 'second' line of resistance; this included above Ethiopian forces above plus a couple added vehicles: 2-3 T-62, BRDM-2 AT, 1 more 2S1 and 2 x Caesar artillery units.
Second Battle North of Marsabit: with reinforcement in artillery, judicious attacks by Mi-2, Mi-35, and couple Mig-23 sorties, second days battle against Kenyan forces eventually destroyed all the five vehicles in this deployed, conducted with a final "charge" by all the tanks and APCs of Ethiopia for a close-quarters battle!
* Battle of Marsabit:
Kenyan Defenders: 2 BMP-1, 1 WV-531, 1 BTR-60, 1 Garrison.
Attackers: (above vehicle and support force).
Ethiopian mobile forces deployed in hex immediately north of two, with artillery off-set to provide distant support....arty chewed up this force as expected, with final destruction in most cased by either Mi-2s or tank fire.
At this point, one Mi-2 had been reduced in strength @ 40% and was withdraw from battle for Repair's.
Another 'road block' force of Kenyan forces was deployed south of Marsabit as the city battle raged. A battle for Wjir was also ongoing to the east.....
* Battle for Wajir:
Kenyan Defenders: 2-3 BRDM + 1 Engineer.
Ethiopian Attack: 3 BMP-1, 1 BRDM-1; Support: 1 2S1 SPG, 1 Caesar, 1 Truck Supply - with late battle reinforcement with 1 BRDM-2 AT arriving.
Most of the battle was conducted north of town and resulted in destruction of all but one BRDM that withdrew southwest. Battle of Garoowe also began during this period and Bandarbeyle was seized when the towns defenders had already been destroyed and two unoccupied. One Mig-23 strike destroyed a damaged Engineer unit during this fighting.
During this fighting on the 14th, Ethiopian forces regrouped into Marsabit when it was taken. Because of a 'third line' of resistance south of Marsabit, there was no interruption in fighting between seizure of Marsabit and fighting to the south.
* First Battle South of Marsabit:
Kenyan Defenders: 1 x T-55, 1 x Engineer, 1 x Lt Infantry, 1 x BMP-1, 1 x YW-531 APC; 3 BRDM-1 recon.
Ethiopian Attack: (regrouped forces in Marsabit city) 6 x T-62, 1 x T-55, 1 Lt. Infantry, 1 BRDM-2 AT; Support: 1 2S1, 2 Caesar SPG, 1 BM-21 MRL w/escort of 1 x T-62 and 1 x BMP-1. Arty support moved to east of town, parallel in order to accommodate the large concentration of mobile forces already in town.
Some Mi-2, Mi-35 Hind, and Mig-23 strikes were part of the general battle for this, along with resupply efforts by 2 x NC-1L transports, W3-W helo transports. More forces moving into area from Sudan Front not yet in battle. A small battle to destroy 1 Kenyan Engineer unit that moved northward on the east side of the long lake involved mostly Ethiopian reinforcements deployed off the main road from Addis Ababa, eventually destroying the unit with 2-3 tank/APC and with 1-2 arty units in support.
Minor distraction to main battle for Marsabit and the road leading south....
Defenders were destroyed with artillery and direct fire from Marsabit defenders, in a wild shoot out
. When the battle ended, the immediate zone south of Marabit was cleared - about 2-3 hexes deep - but three lines of Kenyan vehicle remain SW of town but have not attempt to engage (red lined - out of gas!).
------ [war operations fm Oct.15th have not yet been conducted....]